Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2023

Presentation information

[E] Oral

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences ) » A-AS Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Environment

[A-AS03] Extreme Events and Mesoscale Weather: Observations and Modeling

Tue. May 23, 2023 1:45 PM - 3:00 PM 201A (International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Tetsuya Takemi(Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University), Sridhara Nayak(Japan Meteorological Corporation), Satoshi Iizuka(National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience), Chairperson:Satoshi Iizuka(National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience), Tetsuya Takemi(Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University)

2:30 PM - 2:45 PM

[AAS03-03] Future Changes of Extreme Precipitation and Related Atmospheric Conditions under Global Warming Projected in Large Ensemble Climate Prediction Data

*Sicheng HE1, Tetsuya TAKEMI1 (1.Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University)


Keywords:Extreme precipitation, Global climate model, Climate change

Extreme precipitation is expected to become a more serious hazard to human health, world economies, and the ecosystem in the future. However, the mechanisms of the future changes of extreme precipitation remain unclear. This work assessed the future changes of extreme precipitation and related atmospheric conditions in a large ensemble climate prediction dataset, the database for Policy Decision-making for Future climate change (d4PDF), over East Asia. The future climate projection indicates that both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events over East Asia will increase compared with those in the present climate. When the atmospheric conditions in the historical and future climates are compared for the same precipitation intensity range, the future climate indicates drier, weaker upward motion and less cloud water content, which negatively affect the generation of extreme precipitation events. The atmospheric moisture content will increase in the future; however, cases with the same precipitable water contents between the historical and future climates indicate weaker future precipitation intensity. The analysis suggests that the same conditions will result in weaker intensity in the extreme precipitation range. The future increase in extreme precipitation is primarily due to the increase in precipitable water vapor, which counteracts the negative conditions.