[A-AS03] Extreme Events and Mesoscale Weather: Observations and Modeling

[AAS03-03] Future Changes of Extreme Precipitation and Related Atmospheric Conditions under Global Warming Projected in Large Ensemble Climate Prediction Data

*何 斯誠¹、竹見 哲也¹ (1.京都大学防災研究所)

キーワード：極端降水、全球気候モデル、気候変化

Extreme precipitation is expected to become a more serious hazard to human health, world economies, and the ecosystem in the future. However, the mechanisms of the future changes of extreme precipitation remain unclear. This work assessed the future changes of extreme precipitation and related atmospheric conditions in a large ensemble climate prediction dataset, the database for Policy Decision-making for Future climate change (d4PDF), over East Asia. The future climate projection indicates that both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events over East Asia will increase compared with those in the present climate. When the atmospheric conditions in the historical and future climates are compared for the same precipitation intensity range, the future climate indicates drier, weaker upward motion and less cloud water content, which negatively affect the generation of extreme precipitation events. The atmospheric moisture content will increase in the future; however, cases with the same precipitable water contents between the historical and future climates indicate weaker future precipitation intensity. The analysis suggests that the same conditions will result in weaker intensity in the extreme precipitation range. The future increase in extreme precipitation is primarily due to the increase in precipitable water vapor, which counteracts the negative conditions.