日本地球惑星科学連合2023年大会

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[J] オンラインポスター発表

セッション記号 A (大気水圏科学) » A-AS 大気科学・気象学・大気環境

[A-AS08] 高性能計算で拓く気象・気候・環境科学

2023年5月22日(月) 13:45 〜 15:15 オンラインポスターZoom会場 (1) (オンラインポスター)

コンビーナ:八代 尚(国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所)、宮川 知己(東京大学 大気海洋研究所)、小玉 知央(国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構)、大塚 成徳(国立研究開発法人理化学研究所計算科学研究センター)


現地ポスター発表開催日時 (2023/5/21 17:15-18:45)

13:45 〜 15:15

[AAS08-P07] Global scale large ensemble simulations using NICAM/NICOCO on Fugaku for week to seasonal predictions of high impact weather events

*宮川 知己1山田 洋平2末松 環3升永 竜介2高須賀 大輔1中野 満寿男2小玉 知央2八代 尚4佐藤 正樹1三好 建正3小玉 貴則1川崎 高雄1 (1.東京大学、2.海洋研究開発機構、3.理化学研究所、4.国立環境研究所)

キーワード:台風、MJO、大気海洋結合、大アンサンブル、全球雲解像モデル

Here we provide an overview of Theme 2 in the “Large Ensemble Atmospheric and Environmental Prediction for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation” program, which targeted extended-range (from over a week to several months) predictions of high-impact weather events, using the global cloud/cloud-system resolving model NICAM and its ocean-coupled version NICOCO. These targets require good model performance in producing not only the high-impact weather events themselves, but also largescale, longer-lived fluctuations of MJO/BSISO, ENSO, etc., by which the events are influenced.
Large ensemble member experiments (over 1000 members for 14 km mesh and 30-100 members for 3.5-7 km meshes, initial conditions provided from NEXRA and ALERA systems) were carried out for a typhoon landfall event (Faxai) and for MJOs. TC and MJO predictabilities of the model were investigated, and several key phenomena were identified that separate successful ensemble members from others. Meanwhile, there were progress in model development, especially in terms of cloud microphysics modification and coupling with ocean. Cloud properties and radiation balance were improved, and techniques to prevent model drift at seasonal time scales were installed. NICAM results were submitted to an intercomparison project for global storm resolving models (DYAMOND2) and is now being investigated by researchers over the world. The model was also run in an ideal aqua-planet mode to understand the climatological general circulation and its sensitivity to Earth orientation parameters. The obtained information and upgrades of the model are integrated to carry out upgraded seasonal Typhoon prediction attempts with NICOCO.

Acknowledgements: This work is part of “Program for Promoting Researches on the Supercomputer Fugaku” (JPMXP1020200305 by MEXT). (Project ID: hp200128/hp210166/hp220167). Tomoki Miyakawa is supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP19H05703, 22H01297, and 19K03966.