Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2023

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[E] Oral

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences ) » A-CG Complex & General

[A-CG32] Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales

Mon. May 22, 2023 9:00 AM - 10:15 AM 104 (International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Yushi Morioka(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Hiroyuki Murakami(Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research), Takahito Kataoka, Liping Zhang, Chairperson:Hiroyuki Murakami(Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research), Takahito Kataoka, Yushi Morioka(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

9:00 AM - 9:15 AM

[ACG32-01] Representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its impacts in S2S models

★Invited Papers

*Frederic Vitart1 (1.European Centre for medium-range weather forecasts)

Keywords:Sub-seasonal prediction, Madden Julian Oscillation, Teleconnections

The WWRP/WCRP Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) database contains real-time forecasts and re-forecasts from 12 operational centres, with a lead time between 30 and 60 days. The representation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the models from the S2S database has been evaluated. Most S2S models display similar errors in the simulation of the MJO. They tend to produce an MJO which is too weak and propagates too slowly compared to ERA5 reanalysis, with often difficulties crossing the Maritime Continent. The impact of the MJO on tropical precipitation and tropical cyclone activity is generally well simulated by the S2S models, but the impact of the MJO on extra-tropical weather regimes is significantly underestimated by the S2S models over the Euro-Atlantic sector, limiting the predictive skill over this region. The impact of systematic model errors in the extra-tropical regions on MJO teleconnections has been investigated and will be discussed.