Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2023

Presentation information

Print

[E] Oral

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences ) » A-CG Complex & General

[A-CG32] Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales

Mon. May 22, 2023 9:00 AM - 10:15 AM 104 (International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Yushi Morioka(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Hiroyuki Murakami(Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research), Takahito Kataoka, Liping Zhang, Chairperson:Hiroyuki Murakami(Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research), Takahito Kataoka, Yushi Morioka(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

9:45 AM - 10:00 AM

[ACG32-04] How difficult is seasonal prediction of the 2022 summer extreme rainfall in Pakistan and adjoining northwestern India?-Verification of SINTEX-F and NMME results-

*Takeshi Doi1, Swadhin Behera1 (1.JAMSTEC)

Keywords:Seasonal prediction, Precipiation, Indian Summer Monsoon

We explored the seasonal predictability of the 2022 summer extreme rainfall in Pakistan and adjoining northwestern India using the SINTEX-F and NMME re-forecast outputs. SINTEX-F as well as NMME failed to predict the 2022 June-August extreme rainfall in Pakistan and western India from May. Actually, the SINTEX-F2 as well as NMME are not skillful in predicting the Indian summer monsoon rainfall from May, although they have a reasonable skill in predicting the SST field. Observation and NMME suggests that a La Niña may partly work as a potential source of predictability of the above-normal summer monsoon rainfall in Pakistan. The SINTEX-F as well as the NMME may underestimate impacts of La Niña in the tropical Pacific on above-normal rainfall in Pakistan (model bias). We still need further analysis to understand why the 2022 summer rainfall was so extreme in Pakistan.