[A-CG32] Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales

[ACG32-04] How difficult is seasonal prediction of the 2022 summer extreme rainfall in Pakistan and adjoining northwestern India?-Verification of SINTEX-F and NMME results-

*土井 威志¹、Behera Swadhin¹ (1.JAMSTEC)

キーワード：季節予測、降水量、インド夏モンスーン

We explored the seasonal predictability of the 2022 summer extreme rainfall in Pakistan and adjoining northwestern India using the SINTEX-F and NMME re-forecast outputs. SINTEX-F as well as NMME failed to predict the 2022 June-August extreme rainfall in Pakistan and western India from May. Actually, the SINTEX-F2 as well as NMME are not skillful in predicting the Indian summer monsoon rainfall from May, although they have a reasonable skill in predicting the SST field. Observation and NMME suggests that a La Niña may partly work as a potential source of predictability of the above-normal summer monsoon rainfall in Pakistan. The SINTEX-F as well as the NMME may underestimate impacts of La Niña in the tropical Pacific on above-normal rainfall in Pakistan (model bias). We still need further analysis to understand why the 2022 summer rainfall was so extreme in Pakistan.