[A-CG32] Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales

[ACG32-P05] MIROC6を用いた大規模アンサンブル十年規模気候予測

*片岡 崇人¹、建部 洋晶¹、小山 博司¹、森 正人² (1.海洋研究開発機構、2.九州大学)

The climate fluctuates on various timescales and in various patterns, giving rise to extreme events over the globe. Skillful predictions of such climate variations would therefore benefit society, and there have substantial efforts. It has been shown that the initialization of coupled climate models can enhance the predictive capacity on interannual to decadal timescales. However, since models tend to underestimate signal-to-noise ratio in some sectors, such as the Atlantic, a large ensemble size appears to be required for skillful predictions of those variations. Towards a better understanding of the predictability on timescales out to a year to a decade, we have recently completed a set of initialized predictions using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6 (MIROC6) that consists of 10-year long hindcasts between 1960-2021, with 50 ensemble members. The details of the prediction system and the results will be introduced.