10:45 AM - 11:00 AM
[ACG34-06] Role of Atmospheric Chemistry-Composition Changes in Future Projections of Climate Change
★Invited Papers
Keywords:Short-lived Climate Forcers, Atmospheric Chemistry, Climate Change, Projections
The IPCC-AR6 highlighted the important role of changes in atmospheric chemistry and composition, via changes in emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), on future projections of climate change. A key finding of the assessment was that future changes in SLCFs would lead to warming in addition to the warming from long-lived greenhouse gases and the overall magnitude of this additional warming would be determined by the trajectories of SLCFs with opposing effects on temperature. This finding was primarily based on simple climate model emulators building on the results of a few comprehensive Earth System Models simulations participating in AerChemMIP. While the results are supported by a body of literature exploring the role of SLCFs in climate changes based on a variety of model types and observational analysis, there are uncertainties that limit our assessment and understanding of the role of SLCFs in future climate projections. In this talk, I will discuss some focus areas pertinent to model representation of SLCFs where improvements are needed and how we can make progress. I will also highlight ongoing or planned cross-disciplinary community activities that aim to better quantify and enhance understanding of the interactions between chemistry-composition and climate, with a view towards CMIP7.