11:45 AM - 12:00 PM
[ACG34-10] Observational constraints on climate-related uncertainty of economic impact assessments
Keywords:Climate change, Uncertainty constraints, Impact assessments
The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used the constrained range of global warming (‘assessed warming’) instead of that in the raw ensemble of new generation earth system models (ESMs), because many ESMs are ‘hot models’ that overestimate future global warming. However, there is little guidance how we can reduce the climate-related uncertainty of impact assessments based on the ‘assessed warming’.
Here, we demonstrate that we can significantly reduce the climate-related uncertainty of the economic impact in the world. By applying an impact emulator, we estimate the economic impacts in nine sectors based on 67 ESMs’ future climate change projections. The impacts in eight sectors are closely related to the recent past trend of global mean temperature which can be compared with the observations. Observational constraints lower the upper bound of the aggregate economic impact from 2.9% to 2.5% of the world gross domestic product and reduce 31% of variance under the medium greenhouse gas concentration scenarios.
Here, we demonstrate that we can significantly reduce the climate-related uncertainty of the economic impact in the world. By applying an impact emulator, we estimate the economic impacts in nine sectors based on 67 ESMs’ future climate change projections. The impacts in eight sectors are closely related to the recent past trend of global mean temperature which can be compared with the observations. Observational constraints lower the upper bound of the aggregate economic impact from 2.9% to 2.5% of the world gross domestic product and reduce 31% of variance under the medium greenhouse gas concentration scenarios.