[A-CG34] Projection and detection of global environmental change

[ACG34-P04] Fish biomass projections out to 2300 using offline calculations with output from CMIP6 Earth system models: benefits of mitigation

*Keith Bradley Rodgers¹, Daniele Bianchi³, Ryohei Yamaguchi⁴, Olivier Aumont⁵, Ji-Eun Kim^1,2, Jerome Guiet³ (1.IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan South Korea, 2.Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea, 3.AOS Department, University f California, Los Angeles, Loa Angeles, USA, 4.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan, 5.LOCEAN/IPSL, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, IRD, MNHN, Paris, France)

Keywords:Fish biomass, CMIP6 projections, Mitigation

Recently increasing attention has been devoted to long-term responses of ecosystems to sustained anthropogenic perturbations to the climate system beyond 2100. For models that consider fish and fish biomass sensitivity to climate change, however, most work to date including model intercomparisons have thus far only considered changes to 2100. Here we consider projections to 2300 using the BiOeconomic mArine Trophic Size-spectrum (BOATS) model driven with output from five CMIP6 Earth system models (ESMs) that have been extended under ssp585 and ssp126 emissions pathways. The ESMs includes CESM2-WACCM, IPSL-CM6A, MIROC-ES2L, ACCESS-ESM1.5, and UKESM1. Although these models do exhibit diversity in their degree of warming under ssp585 by 2300, their disagreements with projected primary production are nevertheless pronounced, even disagreeing in sign. In considering changes in fish biomass, our presentation will include not only global- and basin-scale analyses, but also analyses at the biome-scale and for the highly productive Large Marine Ecosystem domains that are more coastally confined. The important and substantial benefits of strong climate mitigation will be described through a comparison of the ssp585 and ssp126 scenarios.