[A-CG34] Projection and detection of global environmental change

[ACG34-P07] Sophistication of a coupled Earth-human system model and feedback analysis using it

*Kaoru Tachiiri^1,3, Ken'ichi Matsumoto^1,2, Xuanming Su³, Tokuta Yokohata³, Tomohiro Hajima¹ (1.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 2.Toyo University, 3.National Institute for Environmental Studies)

Keywords:Earth system model, socio-economic model, land use, heating and cooling energy demands, labor productivity

A loosely coupled an Earth system model (ESM, MIROC-ES2L) and a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) has been improved by incorporating agriculture-land use model (MIROC-INTEG-LAND), and energy demand by heating/cooling, in addition to labor productivity that was already considered in the previous version.
By a preliminary test by CGE with cooling/heating degree-days derived from an ESM’s BAU experiment, considering heating/cooling demand decreases GDP by 0.5%, but increases CO2 emission by 6-10% in the end of the century.
In the presentation, we will be able to show some results of scenario experiments by using the coupled Earth-human system model.