[A-CG34] 地球規模環境変化の予測と検出

[ACG34-P07] Sophistication of a coupled Earth-human system model and feedback analysis using it

*立入 郁^1,3、松本 健一^1,2、蘇 宣銘³、横畠 徳太³、羽島 知洋¹ (1.海洋研究開発機構、2.東洋大学、3.国立環境研究所)

キーワード：地球システムモデル、社会経済モデル、土地利用、冷暖房エネルギー需要、労働生産性

A loosely coupled an Earth system model (ESM, MIROC-ES2L) and a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) has been improved by incorporating agriculture-land use model (MIROC-INTEG-LAND), and energy demand by heating/cooling, in addition to labor productivity that was already considered in the previous version.
By a preliminary test by CGE with cooling/heating degree-days derived from an ESM’s BAU experiment, considering heating/cooling demand decreases GDP by 0.5%, but increases CO2 emission by 6-10% in the end of the century.
In the presentation, we will be able to show some results of scenario experiments by using the coupled Earth-human system model.