10:45 〜 12:15
[ACG46-P08] MIROC5 sensitivity experiments on increasing Siberian wildfires. Part II: Socioeconomic impacts
キーワード：シベリア、森林火災、大気汚染、気候変動、経済費用
This presentation is to follow another one in the same session (Yasunari et al.) and discusses the results of socioeconomic impacts in our recently submitted paper on the global sensitivity simulations regarding potential increases of Siberian wildfire activities (Yasunari et al., submitted). Specifically, we estimated the monetary-equivalent damages or benefits of the enhanced Siberian wildfires in the forms of economic costs of premature mortality from air pollution and of macroeconomic impacts of climate change due to atmospheric loading of wildfire-originated aerosols.
We used the results of the six sensitivity MIROC5/SPRINTARS simulations as reported in our companion presentation, whose conditions differ in the wildfire intensities over the defined Siberian domain at the present and future climate conditions. Utilizing the spatial distribution data of aerosol concentrations, the economic costs of premature mortality from air pollution were estimated from the value of statistical life with the rates of pollution-related premature mortality as evaluated by using the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM: Burnett et al., 2018). Meanwhile, the differentials of annual average temperatures between the simulations were used to estimate monetary-equivalent economic impacts attributable to climatic effects of wildfires, whose values were found by applying the functions of GDP-temperature relationship by Burke et al. (2018).
The estimation of pollution-related mortality from enhanced Siberian wildfires demonstrates that increased fire risks could mean substantial economic costs in Eastern Siberia and East Asia, whose could well be in the order of 10 billion USD annually, as evaluated using the willingness-to-pay method. The results also show climate-economy interactions could be another major type of economic consequence of aerosols from Siberian wildfires, which is similar in the order of magnitude to the size of the mortality-related economic loss. We will discuss more on the day of the presentation.
References
Burnett, R. et al., 2018. Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 115, 9592–9597. 10.1073/pnas.1803222115.
Burke, M., Davis, W.M., Diffenbaugh, N.S., 2018. Large potential reduction in economic damages under un mitigation targets. Nature. 557, 549–553. 10.1038/s41586-018-0071-9.
We used the results of the six sensitivity MIROC5/SPRINTARS simulations as reported in our companion presentation, whose conditions differ in the wildfire intensities over the defined Siberian domain at the present and future climate conditions. Utilizing the spatial distribution data of aerosol concentrations, the economic costs of premature mortality from air pollution were estimated from the value of statistical life with the rates of pollution-related premature mortality as evaluated by using the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM: Burnett et al., 2018). Meanwhile, the differentials of annual average temperatures between the simulations were used to estimate monetary-equivalent economic impacts attributable to climatic effects of wildfires, whose values were found by applying the functions of GDP-temperature relationship by Burke et al. (2018).
The estimation of pollution-related mortality from enhanced Siberian wildfires demonstrates that increased fire risks could mean substantial economic costs in Eastern Siberia and East Asia, whose could well be in the order of 10 billion USD annually, as evaluated using the willingness-to-pay method. The results also show climate-economy interactions could be another major type of economic consequence of aerosols from Siberian wildfires, which is similar in the order of magnitude to the size of the mortality-related economic loss. We will discuss more on the day of the presentation.
References
Burnett, R. et al., 2018. Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 115, 9592–9597. 10.1073/pnas.1803222115.
Burke, M., Davis, W.M., Diffenbaugh, N.S., 2018. Large potential reduction in economic damages under un mitigation targets. Nature. 557, 549–553. 10.1038/s41586-018-0071-9.