[A-OS11] Physical, biogeochemical, and ecological processes and variability in the Indian Ocean

[AOS11-P06] On the Predictability of the Extreme Drought in East Africa During the Short Rains Season

*土井 威志¹、Behera Swadhin¹、山形 俊男¹ (1.JAMSTEC)

キーワード：季節予測、東アフリカの干ばつ、インド洋ダイポールモード現象

Many parts of East Africa experienced extremely dry conditions during the short rains season of October–December 2021. It was predicted a few months before by the ensemble seasonal prediction system based on the SINTEX-F climate model. The analysis of co-variability of inter-member anomalies has revealed that the 2021 negative Indian Ocean Dipole was responsible for these unusually dry conditions over East Africa. We also show that a hybrid statistical-dynamical framework is more skillful than the SINTEX-F model at predicting drought in East Africa on longer lead time, which may help people to take necessary mitigation measures to reduce the devastating impact of the drought.