9:00 AM - 10:30 AM
[AOS11-P06] On the Predictability of the Extreme Drought in East Africa During the Short Rains Season
Keywords:Seasonal prediction, East African Drought, Indian Ocean Dipole
Many parts of East Africa experienced extremely dry conditions during the short rains season of October–December 2021. It was predicted a few months before by the ensemble seasonal prediction system based on the SINTEX-F climate model. The analysis of co-variability of inter-member anomalies has revealed that the 2021 negative Indian Ocean Dipole was responsible for these unusually dry conditions over East Africa. We also show that a hybrid statistical-dynamical framework is more skillful than the SINTEX-F model at predicting drought in East Africa on longer lead time, which may help people to take necessary mitigation measures to reduce the devastating impact of the drought.