[B-PT04] Biotic History

[BPT04-05] An animal crisis caused by pollution, deforestation, and warming and exacerbated by nuclear war will occur in the late 21st century

*Kunio Kaiho¹ (1.Tohoku University)

Keywords:pollution, deforestation, global warming, nuclear war, mass extinction, Anthropocene

An environmental–animal crisis is currently ongoing and is becoming increasingly severe due to human activity. However, the magnitude, timing, and processes related to this crisis are unclear. This paper clarifies the likely magnitude and timing of animal extinctions and changes as functions of the contributing causes (global warming, pollution, deforestation, and two hypothetical nuclear conflicts) during 2000–2300 CE. This paper demonstrates that an animal crisis marked by a 5–13% terrestrial tetrapod species loss and 2–6% marine animal species loss will occur in the next generation during 2060–2080 CE if humans do not engage in nuclear wars. These variations are due to pollution, deforestation, and global warming. The main causes of this crisis will change from pollution and deforestation to deforestation in 2030 under the low CO₂ emission scenarios but will change from pollution and deforestation to deforestation in 2070 and then to deforestation and global warming after 2090 under the medium CO₂ emissions. A nuclear conflict will increase animal species loss up to a ~60% terrestrial tetrapod species loss and ~40% marine animal species loss. Therefore, preventing nuclear war, reducing deforestation rates, decreasing pollution, and limiting global warming are key tasks for humans.