Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2023

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[E] Oral

M (Multidisciplinary and Interdisciplinary) » M-IS Intersection

[M-IS01] Environmental, Socio-Economic and Climatic Changes in Northern Eurasia

Thu. May 25, 2023 9:00 AM - 10:15 AM 103 (International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Pavel Groisman(NC State University Research Scholar at NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, North Carolina, USA), Shamil Maksyutov(National Institute for Environmental Studies), Elena Kukavskaya(V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences - separate subdivision of the FRC KSC SB RAS), Vera Kuklina(George Washington University), Chairperson:Pavel Groisman(NC State University Research Scholar at NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, North Carolina, USA), Shamil Maksyutov(National Institute for Environmental Studies), Elena Kukavskaya(V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences - separate subdivision of the FRC KSC SB RAS)

9:30 AM - 9:45 AM

[MIS01-03] Projected changes in evaporation in the 21st century in the taiga zone of European Russia

*Anastasia Pikaleva1, Ekaterina Nadyozhina1, Igor Shkolnik1, Alexandra Sternzat1 (1.Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory)

Keywords:actual and potential evaporation, assessment methods, climate change, droughts

Model estimates of the changes in actual evaporation of boreal forests in the taiga zone of European part of Russia due to climate warming in the 21st century are conducted. Future regional climate projection is based on the ensemble output of the MGO regional climate model (RCM). Spatiotemporal downscaling of the RCM output is carried out using the atmospheric boundary layer model (ABLM). Dependence of the predicted changes in evaporation on the calculation method is analyzed. Calculations based on “complementary ratio” approach which determines the actual evaporation using standard meteorological parameters are compared with observations and calculations based on a detailed model of energy transfer in the forest area. Model estimates of actual evaporation in the 21st century are projected to increase throughout the territory of European Russia. The influence of droughts on the evolution of actual evaporation is analyzed. It is shown that despite the increase in climate aridity, the impact of droughts on taiga forests will be moderately adverse.