[M-IS01] Environmental, Socio-Economic and Climatic Changes in Northern Eurasia

[MIS01-07] Modeling and Prediction of Environment State Impact in an Area of the Copper-Nickel Plant: A Balanced Model of Atmospheric Deposition Transformation in Watershed and Lake

*Alexander Sokolov¹、Tatiana Moiseenko²、Natalia Gashkina² (1.A.A. Kharkevich Institute for Information Transmission Problems, RAS、2.Vernadsky Institute of Geochemistry and Analytical Chemistry, RAS)

キーワード：pollution transformation , nickel, subarctic water and terrestrial ecosystems, mathematical modeling, balanced identification, prediction

The research deals with modeling the dynamics of nickel concentration in soils, water and bottom sediments of lakes, caused by emissions into the atmosphere of the Pechenganickel plant (Kola Peninsula) during the entire period of its operation. The technology of balanced identification is used, which allows, based on a mathematical description of heterogeneous geochemical processes occurring in ecosystems, to combine heterogeneous experimental data and build a computer model with an optimal balance of complexity and closeness to data. The model is used to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of natural objects in the zone of distribution of atmospheric pollution (nickel) from the Pechenganickel plant. The results are presented and discussed, including estimates of the retrospective state of the simulated objects (before the stat of intensive studies) and a forecast of their dynamics until 2030. According to model calculations, the intensity of Ni accumulation in soil and bottom sediments was 2.35 and 4.48 mg/m² year during maximum precipitation periods (1980-2005), while according to the model forecast, after the shutdown of the plant, a decrease in the intensity of Ni accumulation in bottom sediments (0.23 mg/m² year) and a slow leaching of Ni from the soil (0.19 mg/m² year) will begin.
Funding: This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation under grant no. 22-17-00061.