[M-IS01] Environmental, Socio-Economic and Climatic Changes in Northern Eurasia

[MIS01-P05] Mapping and Spatial Analyses for Hazard Prediction of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Himalaya-Karakorum-Hindukush Ranges

*Laiba Salman¹, Takayuki Ogata¹ (1.Graduate School of Engineering and Science, University of the Ryukyus)

Keywords:Global Warming, Glacier, Floods, GIS (Geographic Information Systems), RS (Remote Sensing), Asia

The world's highest mountains are facing many challenges related with recent climate changes. This study spatially analyzes the risk of natural hazards caused by seasonal floods, including GLOF, in Himalaya-Karakorum-Hindukush region (HKH region) and discusses the effects of global warming on geomorphological and hydrological processes. Mapping and spatial analyses were undertaken in four study areas (Astore in Himalaya, Gilgit in Karakorum, Chitral and Swat in Hindukush) using RS and GIS technics. The recent climate changes were estimated from the data on temperature and precipitation in study areas for 54 years. Surface environments were mapped in terms of slope gradient, elevation, rainfall, drainage density, distance from the river and distribution of soil. The results of analyses were ascertained by the matrix-based analytical hierarchal process and the validity technique. The mapping indicates flood susceptibility showing the quantitative risk caused by seasonal floods. Statistical analysis classified the risk zones into five classes. These mapping and analyses demonstrate significant flood preparedness through a range of strategies, such as flood-proofing measures, emergency preparation and evacuation planning.