16:15 〜 16:30
[MIS06-10] Evaluation of Short-Term Prediction of Typhoon Intensity Development Using Lightning Data
キーワード：雷放電、台風、短期予測
Recent studies revealed that the lightning occurrence number in typhoons shows clear relation to the typhoon intensity development. This fact implies that the lightning data can be utilized for the future short-term prediction of the typhoon intensity development. Thus, the main goal of this study is to establish such short-term prediction method using lightning data. For this purpose, we constructed the lightning observation network in the western north Pacific region. Newly developed automatic weather and lightning observation system (V-POTEKA) was deployed in the Philippines, Guam, Palau, Jakarta, Okinawa since September 2017. The lightning-excited VLF radio wave signals detected by V-POTEKAs are analyzed, and the lightning locations are automatically estimated using the time-of-arrival method. Using the V-POTEKA and WWLLN (World Wide Lightning Location Network) lightning data and typhoon data provided by JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) and JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center), we compared the relation between the typhoon-related lightning discharges and the intensity development of 48 typhoons occurred in the period of 2018-2020. It is confirmed that the time variations of the detected lightning number and typhoon intensities (maximum wind speed and minimum pressure) are correlated and that there is a clear time lag between them. It is also found that the time lag in the weaker typhoons is smaller than that in the stronger typhoons. Using this result and newly proposed short-term prediction method, we performed the hindcast experiment for both weak and strong typhoons. At the presentation, we will show the results derived from the hindcast experiments in detail and discuss the usefulness and limitations of the prediction method.