4:30 PM - 4:45 PM
[MZZ40-05] Meteorological factors of extreme residual load events and the possible future changes: Dark doldrums and electricity demands
Keywords:Variable renewable energy , Extremely high residual load, Dark doldrums, Energy shortage crisis , Energy meteorology , Weather regime types
Under high variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration, the occurrence of low VRE production, such as dark doldrums (Dunkelflaute) and wind-solar drought, can threaten a secure and continuous energy supply owing to an imbalance between electricity demand and supply. In this study, historically reconstructed long-term VRE generation and electricity demand were used to investigate the relationship between extremely high residual load (demand minus VRE output) and weather/climate in Japan. The impact of changes in the VRE's installed capacity on this relationship was also investigated using three simple future target scenarios. The results showed that the increase in installed VRE capacity causes greater daily and weekly residual load variabilities and affects the seasonality of its peaks. To study the weather patterns associated with high residual load events, self-organizing maps were applied to atmospheric circulation fields derived from atmospheric reanalysis data. The high residual load was associated with enhanced cold surge-type weather patterns during winter at the current low VRE installation level. However, under future increased VRE penetration, the weather patterns leading to high residual load will change to cloudy-windless types typically caused by a southern coastal extratropical cyclone. There is also considerable interannual variability in the frequency of high residual load events, which changed significantly with increasing VRE capacity. It is crucial to incorporate the dependence of climatic conditions into designing power systems to maintain the stability of a power system under future conditions.