Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2023

Presentation information

[J] Oral

O (Public ) » Public

[O-04] 100 Years after the Great Kanto Earthquake. Can Social Evolution Sur vive the Next Disaster?

Sun. May 21, 2023 3:30 PM - 5:00 PM Exhibition Hall Special Setting (2) (Exhibition Hall 8, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Yukiko TAKEUCHI(Kumamoto University), Akira Wada(Tokyo Institute of Technology), Yoshinori MIYACHI(Geological Survey of Japan, AIST), Yukihiro Takahashi(Department of Cosmosciences, Graduate School of Science, Hokkaido University), Chairperson:Akira Wada(Tokyo Institute of Technology), Yukiko TAKEUCHI(Kumamoto University)

3:30 PM - 3:55 PM

[O04-04] Resilient Society and Disaster Prevention/Recovery of Local Economies

★Invited Papers

*Ikejima Yoshifumi1 (1.Yokohama National University)

Keywords:Resilience, Local economy, Supply chains

We are currently in the era of the global economy, where people (labor), goods (trade), money (investment), and information can easily transcend national borders. Since the late 1980s, Japanese companies have been actively engaged in overseas local production to avoid trade friction between Japan and the U.S. and to take advantage of low labor costs and other benefits. Since then, with the rise of multinational corporations, the international division of labor has progressed remarkably, and global production and supply networks have been established so that raw materials, intermediate goods, and final products are each produced in a different country and sold throughout the world. It is not only industrial products but also agricultural products and processed foods integrated into the global supply chain instead of being produced within a country. Our daily lives are made easier by the benefits of this system. However, there is a risk that this global supply chain may be disrupted by natural disasters that occur in various parts of the world. We pursue to realize a resilient society that can minimize disaster damage and boost recovery.
This global supply chain includes multiple stages, from product planning and development to raw material procurement, production, shipping sales, and delivery to the final consumer. With economic globalization, this supply chain has evolved into a complex structure, but it maintains the elements of production and supply of a vast array of goods. However, environmental risks such as natural disasters and infectious diseases, geopolitical risks such as terrorism and political instability, economic risks due to economic crises and rapid price fluctuations, and technological risks such as system failures, can cause supply chain disruptions. The Great East Japan Earthquake has brought attention not only to the direct damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami, but also to the widespread indirect damage outside the disaster area through the supply chain disruptions. In addition to natural disasters in Japan, flooding in Thailand and the coronavirus pandemic have also caused production and logistical disruptions that have affected international supply chains.
However, although supply chains have been strongly affected in industries with production bases in the affected areas of disaster, the supply chain is generally formed through business-to-business transactions. If transactions are not suspended, the chain relationship tends to recover as the disaster site is restored. Even if transactions with one company are suspended, the supply chain recovers if transactions are switched to another company. On the other hand, if the affected companies are small, medium, or micro enterprises, their weak business foundations will force them to downsize or halt operations, making it difficult for them to recover quickly. The local economy in each region is supported by small- and medium-sized enterprises, and the survival of these enterprises may have a strong impact on the recovery of the local economy. In other words, it is difficult for small- and medium-sized enterprises to recover from the external shocks of disasters, and the damage to the local economy is likely to be more severe when the extent of the damage is large.
This study examines measures that need to be taken to increase economic resilience to natural disasters from the perspective of disaster prevention, focusing on the local economy. While the establishment and strengthening of supply chains within and outside the region are considered to contribute to resilience improvement, the small- and medium-sized enterprises that support the local economy may themselves lack the resilience needed to recover from disasters. In such a case, what types of measures and support are required? Since the economy is composed of many entities, the direction of disaster preparedness will change depending on which entities are focused on. In this section, we discuss disaster prevention and economic recovery for needed.