[S-SS09] Strong Ground Motion and Earthquake Disaster

[SSS09-P15] Onsite Early Prediction of PGA Using CNN with Multi-Scale P-Waves as Input

*Ting Yu Hsu¹, Wen I Liao² (1.National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, 2.National Taipei University of Technology)

Keywords:earthquake early warning, CNN, Onsite

Although convolutional neural networks (CNN) have been applied successfully to many fields, the onsite earthquake early warning by CNN remains unexplored. To change this situation, this study aims to predict the peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the incoming seismic waves using CNN, which is achieved by analyzing the first three seconds of P-wave data collected from a single site. Because the amplitude of P-wave data of large and small earthquakes can differ, the multi-scale input of P-wave data is proposed in this study in order to let the CNN observe the input data in different scales. Both the time and frequency domains of the P-wave data are combined into multi-domain input, and therefore the CNN can observe the data from different aspects. Since only the maximum absolute acceleration value of the time history of seismic waves is the target output of the CNN, the absolute value of the P-wave time history data is used instead of the raw value. Based on the results of a large amount of earthquake data, the proposed arrangement of the input data shows its superiority to the one directly inputting the raw P-wave data into the CNN. Moreover, the predicted PGA accuracy using the proposed CNN approach is higher than the one using the support vector regression approach that employed the extracted P-wave features as its input. The proposed CNN approach also shows that the accuracy of the predicted PGA and the alert performances are acceptable based on data from two independent and damaging earthquakes.