3:30 PM - 5:00 PM
[SVC35-P09] Subtheme C-2: Medium-to-long Term Forecasting of Volcanic Eruptions through Investigation of Eruptive History, and Creation of Eruption Event Trees Based on Investigation of Eruption Sequence
To expedite “Development of Forecasting Technology for Volcanic Eruptions”, it is essential to obtain geophysical monitoring data related to pre, during, and post eruption processes. However, it is also important to have geological information about volcanic history and detailed eruption sequences, as well as petrological and geochemical information of volcanic products that record pre-eruption magmatic processes at each volcano. Obtaining such data may allow us to elucidate the eruption preparatory processes, the change and cause of eruptive styles, and the conditions that led to the eruption ending. By accumulating many natural observations obtained by such case studies, it is expected that we can establish volcano eruption forecasting technology.
In the research of the subtheme C-2 “Medium-to-long term forecasting of volcanic eruptions through investigation of eruptive history, and creation of eruption event trees based on investigation of eruption sequence”, we selected 26 key volcanoes as the targets of our investigation, all of which are active and would have a major impact on society if they erupt. We also selected the following 5 highest-priority volcanoes on which boring and trench surveys were intensively implemented: Mashu, Chokai, Asama, Aso, Kikai (Satsuma Iojima). As this subtheme is based primarily on geological surveys and petrological and geochemical analysis of volcanic products that require a lot of time and labor, experts from many institutions have participated in this project. We also established “Magma Evolution Process Analysis Center” in Hokkaido University to conduct high-quality petrological and geochemical analyses of volcanic products, which is available to researchers and graduate students from the participating organizations.
For each target volcano, we have already obtained information about highly precise eruption histories and detailed eruption sequences of the individual eruption stages. Based on these results, we have created highly precise “time–eruption volume step diagrams” at the individual volcanoes. We have also carried out petrological and geochemical analyses on volcanic products to understand the pre-eruption magmatic processes and magma plumbing systems. In addition, by clarifying the characteristics of eruption events and their similarities of the studied volcanoes, we have provided the necessary parameters for modeling eruption events – e.g., eruption volume, eruption sequence, properties of magmas (composition, crystal content, temperature etc.) - particularly to subthemes C-1 and C-3. We will further develop medium-to-long term eruption forecasting methods and eruption event trees that include branch probabilities.
Our ultimate goal is that the outcomes of this project will be widely promulgated among local governments/municipalities, the Volcano Disaster Prevention Council, and citizens, and will be utilized in long-term infrastructure planning, volcano disaster preparedness and also in educating citizens.
In the research of the subtheme C-2 “Medium-to-long term forecasting of volcanic eruptions through investigation of eruptive history, and creation of eruption event trees based on investigation of eruption sequence”, we selected 26 key volcanoes as the targets of our investigation, all of which are active and would have a major impact on society if they erupt. We also selected the following 5 highest-priority volcanoes on which boring and trench surveys were intensively implemented: Mashu, Chokai, Asama, Aso, Kikai (Satsuma Iojima). As this subtheme is based primarily on geological surveys and petrological and geochemical analysis of volcanic products that require a lot of time and labor, experts from many institutions have participated in this project. We also established “Magma Evolution Process Analysis Center” in Hokkaido University to conduct high-quality petrological and geochemical analyses of volcanic products, which is available to researchers and graduate students from the participating organizations.
For each target volcano, we have already obtained information about highly precise eruption histories and detailed eruption sequences of the individual eruption stages. Based on these results, we have created highly precise “time–eruption volume step diagrams” at the individual volcanoes. We have also carried out petrological and geochemical analyses on volcanic products to understand the pre-eruption magmatic processes and magma plumbing systems. In addition, by clarifying the characteristics of eruption events and their similarities of the studied volcanoes, we have provided the necessary parameters for modeling eruption events – e.g., eruption volume, eruption sequence, properties of magmas (composition, crystal content, temperature etc.) - particularly to subthemes C-1 and C-3. We will further develop medium-to-long term eruption forecasting methods and eruption event trees that include branch probabilities.
Our ultimate goal is that the outcomes of this project will be widely promulgated among local governments/municipalities, the Volcano Disaster Prevention Council, and citizens, and will be utilized in long-term infrastructure planning, volcano disaster preparedness and also in educating citizens.