[U-02] Remote Sensing Role in Sustainable Development

[U02-01] The impact of armed conflict and policy changes on land use/land cover

*Saeed Mhanna¹, Landon J.S. Halloran¹, Francois Zwahlen¹, Ahmed Haj Asaad², Philip Brunner¹ (1.The Centre for Hydrogeology and Geothermics of University of Neuchatel, Switzerland , 2.GeoExpertise, Switzerland)

Keywords:Remote Sensing, Armed Conflict, Syria, Orontes River Basin

Changes in land systems can arise from a variety of factors such as policy shifts or armed conflict. Understanding these changes is vital for the sustainable management of natural resources. The Orontes River Basin (ORB), stretching between Lebanon, Syria and Turkey, serves as a noteworthy example. In the ORB, policy changes in 2008, including the elimination of fuel subsidies for irrigation and restrictions on excessive groundwater usage, preceded armed conflict. The outbreak of the Syrian war in 2011 resulted in the collapse of irrigation systems and widespread population displacement in the following years. In conflict-affected areas like ORB, where field data collection is nearly impossible, remote sensing has emerged as a critical tool for understanding these transformations.
In this study, we leverage advancements in cloud computing and machine learning to propose a methodology for evaluating changes in Land Use/Land Cover (LULC), supported by a statistical analysis of the data using a quasi-experimental approach. Landsat 5, 7, 8, and 9 surface reflectance data products were processed through Google Earth Engine (GEE) to produce annual Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) maps from 2004 to 2022. The MODIS products were also utilized to examine changes in croplands. The results highlight the varying spatial and temporal effects of conflict and policy changes on LULC in the ORB. These findings can inform stakeholders in developing sustainable water resource and agricultural plans in the future.