[U-05] Geospatial Applications for Natural Resources, Environment and Agriculture

[U05-01] 日本における気候変動影響の空間的評価：マルチセクター分析からの知見

★招待講演

*劉 斐¹、Masago Yoshifumi¹ (1.National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan)

キーワード：適応戦略、気候変動影響、マルチセクター分析、日本、空間計画

There is a growing potential to assess and project the impacts of climate change across diverse sectors. The information is essential to enhance adaptation interventions to tackle future climate risks. Against this backdrop, this study aims to evaluate the multifaceted climate change impacts in Japan and explore their relationships based on spatially explicit analyses. The different impacts of climate change were derived from multiple research projects in Japan, spanning agriculture, natural ecosystem, disaster, and health sectors. Four sectoral indicators were harmonized to delineate the homogeneous impact zones (HIZs) based on multivariate clustering solutions. Subsequently, the scenario-based analogous impact maps in 2100 were produced to identify the geographical concurrency and heterogeneity of diverse impacts under the changing climates. Each analogous impact map was composed of five HIZs, showing the spatial diversity and complexity of the climate change impacts. The direction and co-occurrence pattern among different impacts were determined by various factors, including the correlations and their strengths between impacts and climate change. The framework of this study could fill a gap in the approaches for comprehensive climate change impacts assessment and consequently develop a transferable methodology for multi-sectoral and multi-level adaptation schemes in the national assessments.