2:00 PM - 2:15 PM
[U10-02] Is possibility of the weather controlling a takeable option?
Keywords:Anthropocene, Severe disaster, Weather controlling, Climate intervention
In the Sixth Assessment Report, the IPCC reported that observations show an unprecedented rate of temperature change over the past 2000 years. The global warming in recent years has become undoubtable, discussions about climate intervention and weather controlling are taking place around the world. Activities in which humans attempt to intentionally intervene in nature, this is exactly what should be discussed within the framework of the Anthropocene.
NOAA has funded a research and development program for climate intervention technology called the Earth Radiative Budget (ERB) and has begun to consider means of artificially adjusting the radiative energy balance in the stratosphere and troposphere. NCAR has also launched a virtual laboratory specializing in climate interventions and has embarked on a wide range of technological developments including carbon dioxide removal and radiation management. In Japan, from June 2022, JST Moonshot Goal 8 "Realization of a society safe from the threat of extreme winds and rains by controlling and modifying the weather by 2050" was kicked-off. The goal of the ongoing program is to demonstration on a computer that it is possible to reduce disaster damage by controlling typhoons and extreme rains using realistic intervention operations, and conduct field experiments to verify these operations by 2030.
The Typhoon Science and Technology Research Center (TRC), Institute for Advanced Science and Technology, Yokohama National University is leading "A core research program for Typhoon controlling aiming for a safe and happy society" in JST Moonshot Goal 8. Multiple intervention methods are proposed so far, intervening in the development process of convective clouds by particles seeding into the atmosphere, slowing down the wind near the sea surface by using a resistance ship, and increasing the sea surface temperature by pumping up deep sea water. We are tackling to be clear the main and side effects induced by intervention techniques within the numerical model before starting field experiments. For example, in the method of intervening in the cloud microphysical process, the intensity of typhoon may be controlled by slightly modifying the secondary circulation of the typhoon through intervening the convective cloud process. By seeding fine particles act as condensation nuclei from the cloud base, the adiabatic heating rate may be influenced by changing the condensation amount and the growth rate of the cloud droplets.
Many roadblocks stand in the way of demonstrating these ideas. As known well, the atmosphere is a strongly nonlinear process. It is very doubtful whether the state-of-the-art numerical weather predicting model and supercomputer can be sufficiently expressed to withstand the practical use of this subject. There are questions from the social science perspective, will it be possible to control the typhoon so that it does not head toward another country? We know that there are many opinions about whether humans should intervene in nature.
From the 1950s, the several projects for typhoon controlling were launched in the United States. However, the hurricane in which the artificial intervention experiment was conducted landed on the mainland of the United States and caused damage. We aim at in the typhoon control task is assumed to reduce the original intensity by a maximum of about 10%. The purpose is to eliminate the enormous damage by weakening the intensity a little so that it does not exceed the "assumed" intensity considered in the city planning. Extinguish the typhoon on the Earth or prevent the typhoon from approaching Japan at all are not our goal. At the same time as technological development, we must discuss whether this goal is ethically, legally, and socially permissible. Moonshot Goal 8 established a dedicated group to tackle these ELSI (Ethical, Legal and Social Issues).
The discussion of weather controlling and climate intervening are included in the term of Anthropocene at a heavy weight. Human beings have made various climate interventions unintentionally so far, in other words, without enough understanding of nature. Now, we are planning to intentionally intervene in the climate and weather. It's clear that just because you can do something doesn't mean you should go ahead with it. The technological development has already begun, we must discuss from a broad perspective whether this possibility is an option to take.
NOAA has funded a research and development program for climate intervention technology called the Earth Radiative Budget (ERB) and has begun to consider means of artificially adjusting the radiative energy balance in the stratosphere and troposphere. NCAR has also launched a virtual laboratory specializing in climate interventions and has embarked on a wide range of technological developments including carbon dioxide removal and radiation management. In Japan, from June 2022, JST Moonshot Goal 8 "Realization of a society safe from the threat of extreme winds and rains by controlling and modifying the weather by 2050" was kicked-off. The goal of the ongoing program is to demonstration on a computer that it is possible to reduce disaster damage by controlling typhoons and extreme rains using realistic intervention operations, and conduct field experiments to verify these operations by 2030.
The Typhoon Science and Technology Research Center (TRC), Institute for Advanced Science and Technology, Yokohama National University is leading "A core research program for Typhoon controlling aiming for a safe and happy society" in JST Moonshot Goal 8. Multiple intervention methods are proposed so far, intervening in the development process of convective clouds by particles seeding into the atmosphere, slowing down the wind near the sea surface by using a resistance ship, and increasing the sea surface temperature by pumping up deep sea water. We are tackling to be clear the main and side effects induced by intervention techniques within the numerical model before starting field experiments. For example, in the method of intervening in the cloud microphysical process, the intensity of typhoon may be controlled by slightly modifying the secondary circulation of the typhoon through intervening the convective cloud process. By seeding fine particles act as condensation nuclei from the cloud base, the adiabatic heating rate may be influenced by changing the condensation amount and the growth rate of the cloud droplets.
Many roadblocks stand in the way of demonstrating these ideas. As known well, the atmosphere is a strongly nonlinear process. It is very doubtful whether the state-of-the-art numerical weather predicting model and supercomputer can be sufficiently expressed to withstand the practical use of this subject. There are questions from the social science perspective, will it be possible to control the typhoon so that it does not head toward another country? We know that there are many opinions about whether humans should intervene in nature.
From the 1950s, the several projects for typhoon controlling were launched in the United States. However, the hurricane in which the artificial intervention experiment was conducted landed on the mainland of the United States and caused damage. We aim at in the typhoon control task is assumed to reduce the original intensity by a maximum of about 10%. The purpose is to eliminate the enormous damage by weakening the intensity a little so that it does not exceed the "assumed" intensity considered in the city planning. Extinguish the typhoon on the Earth or prevent the typhoon from approaching Japan at all are not our goal. At the same time as technological development, we must discuss whether this goal is ethically, legally, and socially permissible. Moonshot Goal 8 established a dedicated group to tackle these ELSI (Ethical, Legal and Social Issues).
The discussion of weather controlling and climate intervening are included in the term of Anthropocene at a heavy weight. Human beings have made various climate interventions unintentionally so far, in other words, without enough understanding of nature. Now, we are planning to intentionally intervene in the climate and weather. It's clear that just because you can do something doesn't mean you should go ahead with it. The technological development has already begun, we must discuss from a broad perspective whether this possibility is an option to take.