5:15 PM - 6:45 PM
[AAS05-P09] Identification of issues in field experiments on typhoon −Analysis of Project Stormfury−
Keywords:typhoon modification, ELSI, governance
In Moonshot Goal 8 project, it is planned to conduct field experiments on typhoons in 2040 and on cumulonimbus clouds in 2030.
It is necessary to establish original rules for the demonstration experiments. For example, the experimental area should be set to limited area that does not affect land, and the target typhoons should be selected as those that will not affect land after the experiment.
This study analyzes past field experiments and discussions in Project Stormfury (1962-1983) to explore the issues of governance of field experiments on typhoons today.
In Project Stormfury, a draft experimental criteria in the western North Pacific was proposed by the US in 1970. The criteria were revised twice by 1974 through discussions in the Typhoon Committee.
The criteria consisted of five elements: (1) where to place the base point of the experiment, (2) the maximum distance from the starting point of the experiment, (3) the time that should be ensured from the time of seeding to the approach to land, (4) the distance between the center of the hurricane and land after 24 hours of seeding, and (5) the maximum wind speed of the hurricane to be experimented on. The Japanese representative insisted that the implementation criteria should include a factor to ensure "safety on land. The US affirmed Japan's opinion and revised the criteria. (For example, (4) the distance between the center of the hurricane and land after 24 hours of seeding was expanded from 50 NM to 270 NM in 1974, in an attempt to reduce the impact on land. Table 1 summarizes the evolution of the five elements of the experimental criteria.
In modern experiments, as in the Project Stormfury, it is necessary to achieve international agreement before the experiments can be conducted. The point of international discussion will be the establishment of criteria for the implementation of the experiments. Experimental criteria need to satisfy two requirements: (1) scientific aspect; to accurately determine the effectiveness of the intervention and (2) social aspect; to ensure safety on land, to gain public understanding, and to obtain international consensus.
It is necessary to establish original rules for the demonstration experiments. For example, the experimental area should be set to limited area that does not affect land, and the target typhoons should be selected as those that will not affect land after the experiment.
This study analyzes past field experiments and discussions in Project Stormfury (1962-1983) to explore the issues of governance of field experiments on typhoons today.
In Project Stormfury, a draft experimental criteria in the western North Pacific was proposed by the US in 1970. The criteria were revised twice by 1974 through discussions in the Typhoon Committee.
The criteria consisted of five elements: (1) where to place the base point of the experiment, (2) the maximum distance from the starting point of the experiment, (3) the time that should be ensured from the time of seeding to the approach to land, (4) the distance between the center of the hurricane and land after 24 hours of seeding, and (5) the maximum wind speed of the hurricane to be experimented on. The Japanese representative insisted that the implementation criteria should include a factor to ensure "safety on land. The US affirmed Japan's opinion and revised the criteria. (For example, (4) the distance between the center of the hurricane and land after 24 hours of seeding was expanded from 50 NM to 270 NM in 1974, in an attempt to reduce the impact on land. Table 1 summarizes the evolution of the five elements of the experimental criteria.
In modern experiments, as in the Project Stormfury, it is necessary to achieve international agreement before the experiments can be conducted. The point of international discussion will be the establishment of criteria for the implementation of the experiments. Experimental criteria need to satisfy two requirements: (1) scientific aspect; to accurately determine the effectiveness of the intervention and (2) social aspect; to ensure safety on land, to gain public understanding, and to obtain international consensus.