14:15 〜 14:30
[AAS06-03] Buffering Effect of Atmosphere–Ocean Coupling on Intensity Changes of Tropical Cyclones under a Changing Climate
キーワード：台風、大気海洋相互作用、大気海洋結合モデル、気候変動
Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause extreme destruction. Therefore, to prevent future disasters, it is essential to understand how warmer environmental conditions will affect intense TCs. TC intensity generally increases as sea surface temperature (SST) increases. Because most studies have projected that SST will increase as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse warming, the maximum intensity of TCs will likely increase in a future warmer climate. While at the same time, a stronger TC can significantly reduce the SST by atmosphere–ocean interaction. To quantitively assess how atmosphere–ocean coupling affected intensity changes of an intense typhoon under changing climate, we used a regional high-resolution three-dimensional atmosphere–ocean coupled model, CReSS-NHOES. A storyline event attribution approach was applied to four historical intense TCs in the western North Pacific, Typhoons Trami (2018), Faxai (2019), Hagibis (2019), and Haishen (2020).
We found that the atmosphere–ocean coupling buffered changes in storm intensity associated with global warming by modulating the storm-induced SST-cooling in the vicinity of the storm center. This buffering effect increased as storms traveled northward. Moreover, the effect intensified as warming progressed, because reductions in sea surface temperature induced by the storm increased as the storm strengthened in future warmer climates.We also found that the magnitude of the buffering effect depended on the storm size and translation speed and differed greatly among storms; a large, slow-moving storm had significant resilience against global warming, whereas a compact, fast-moving storm was sensitive to global warming.
Acknowledgments: The computation was carried out on the supercomputer "Flow" at Information Technology Center, Nagoya University. This work was partially supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI Grants 20H05166 and 19H05696.
Kanada, S., & Aiki, H. (2024). Buffering effect of atmosphere–ocean coupling on intensity changes of tropical cyclones under a changing climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2023GL105659. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105659
We found that the atmosphere–ocean coupling buffered changes in storm intensity associated with global warming by modulating the storm-induced SST-cooling in the vicinity of the storm center. This buffering effect increased as storms traveled northward. Moreover, the effect intensified as warming progressed, because reductions in sea surface temperature induced by the storm increased as the storm strengthened in future warmer climates.We also found that the magnitude of the buffering effect depended on the storm size and translation speed and differed greatly among storms; a large, slow-moving storm had significant resilience against global warming, whereas a compact, fast-moving storm was sensitive to global warming.
Acknowledgments: The computation was carried out on the supercomputer "Flow" at Information Technology Center, Nagoya University. This work was partially supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI Grants 20H05166 and 19H05696.
Kanada, S., & Aiki, H. (2024). Buffering effect of atmosphere–ocean coupling on intensity changes of tropical cyclones under a changing climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2023GL105659. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105659