3:30 PM - 3:45 PM
[AAS08-06] The predictability of sediment-related disasters using WRF
★Invited Papers
Keywords:WRF, Sediment-related disasters, Tank Model, Line-shaped rainband (Senjo-kousuitai), Early warning, Disaster prevention
From June 1 to 3, 2023, heavy rainfall occurred mainly in the Chubu, Kinki, and Shikoku regions due to a Baiu front and Typhoon No. 2. Also, line-shaped rainband occurred in Kochi, Wakayama, Nara, Mie, Aichi, and Shizuoka Prefectures [1]. In particular, Wakayama Prefecture suffered a sediment-related disasters that caused damage to its agriculture, forestry, and fisheries industries, including mandarin oranges, amounting to approximately 1.67 billion yen [2].
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) provides sediment-related disasters warning information using forecasts up to two hours in advance. If WRF can be used to provide information on the forecasting of sediment-related disasters, it will be possible to make forecasts earlier than two hours in advance, which will give city halls and other authorities more time to respond.
In this study, we examined the possibility of using WRF-based forecasts to evaluate the occurrence of sediment-related disasters for the case of heavy rainfall and landslides that caused a sediment-related disasters in Wakayama Prefecture on June 2, 2023.
JMA MSM and U.S. FNL were used for the initial and boundary values of WRF in the calculations. Using the precipitation calculated by the WRF, a soil water index was calculated and compared to the standard values for heavy rainfall special warnings, heavy rainfall warnings, and heavy rainfall advisories to determine if it is possible to predict the occurrence of sediment-related disasters. In addition, comparisons with the soil water index calculated based on MSM precipitation were also made to demonstrate the validity of this study.
[1] JMA, https://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/data/bosai/report/2023/20230623/pdf/2023_1_wakayama_1.pdf 2023/06/27(view)
[2] Yomiuri Newspaper Online, https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/local/wakayama/news/20230608-OYTNT50034/ 2023/06/26(view)
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) provides sediment-related disasters warning information using forecasts up to two hours in advance. If WRF can be used to provide information on the forecasting of sediment-related disasters, it will be possible to make forecasts earlier than two hours in advance, which will give city halls and other authorities more time to respond.
In this study, we examined the possibility of using WRF-based forecasts to evaluate the occurrence of sediment-related disasters for the case of heavy rainfall and landslides that caused a sediment-related disasters in Wakayama Prefecture on June 2, 2023.
JMA MSM and U.S. FNL were used for the initial and boundary values of WRF in the calculations. Using the precipitation calculated by the WRF, a soil water index was calculated and compared to the standard values for heavy rainfall special warnings, heavy rainfall warnings, and heavy rainfall advisories to determine if it is possible to predict the occurrence of sediment-related disasters. In addition, comparisons with the soil water index calculated based on MSM precipitation were also made to demonstrate the validity of this study.
[1] JMA, https://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/data/bosai/report/2023/20230623/pdf/2023_1_wakayama_1.pdf 2023/06/27(view)
[2] Yomiuri Newspaper Online, https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/local/wakayama/news/20230608-OYTNT50034/ 2023/06/26(view)