[A-CG31] Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales

[ACG31-08] Dynamics of the 2023/24 strong El Niño: A perspective from influences inside and outside of the tropical Pacific

*Tao Lian¹ (1.Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, China)

Keywords:2023/24 El Niño, Dynamics, Prediction, Interbasin interaction

The upper ocean heat content in the equatorial Pacific usually serves as a primary precursor for an upcoming El Niño, while extreme events outside the tropical Pacific also play a decisive role in determining the final intensity of extreme event. The tropical Pacific Ocean has experienced a rare 3-year La Niña, which accumulated a huge amount of warm water in the western basin by the winter of 2022 with an intensity much stronger than those preceding the onset of strong El Niños in history. Using a state-of-the-art climate prediction system, we for the first time successfully predicted the 2023/24 strong El Niño. The restored warm water in winter of 2022, as well as the strong sea surface temperature anomalies in the north tropical Atlantic, northeastern tropical Pacific, and tropical Indian Ocean were found to be crucial in modulating the evolution of this event. Their relative contributions are scaled quantitatively using the prediction system too.