Feedback analysis of Earth-human systems using a loosely coupled model

Kaoru Tachiiri; Ken’ichi  Matsumoto; Xuanming Su; Tokuta Yokohata; Tomohiro Hajima

Presentation information

[E] Oral

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences ) » A-CG Complex & General

[A-CG34] Projection and detection of global environmental change

Thu. May 30, 2024 10:45 AM - 12:00 PM 103 (International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Michio Kawamiya(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Kaoru Tachiiri(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Hiroaki Tatebe(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), V Ramaswamy(NOAA GFDL), Chairperson:Kaoru Tachiiri(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Michio Kawamiya(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

11:45 AM - 12:00 PM

[ACG34-09] Feedback analysis of Earth-human systems using a loosely coupled model

*Kaoru Tachiiri^1,2, Ken’ichi Matsumoto^3,1, Xuanming Su², Tokuta Yokohata², Tomohiro Hajima¹ (1.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 2.National Institute for Environmental Studies, 3.Toyo University)

Keywords:Earth system, socio-economic system, feedback, labor productivity, land use, cooling and heating demands

We developed a loosely coupled Earth system and socio-economic model, and ran that with Business As Usual scenario up to 2100. In coupling changes in labor productivity, agricultural yields (land use), and heating/cooling energy demands, selected based on an evaluation with existing literature, are considered. The result shows a slight decrease in GDP and comparable CO2 emission, in comparison to the no feedback case. Meanwhile, CO2 concentration is larger than the no feedback case, mainly due to a decrease in land carbon uptake by expansion of cropland to natural forest.