[A-CG34] 地球規模環境変化の予測と検出

[ACG34-09] Feedback analysis of Earth-human systems using a loosely coupled model

*立入 郁^1,2、松本 健一^3,1、蘇 宣銘²、横畠 徳太²、羽島 知洋¹ (1.海洋研究開発機構、2.国立環境研究所、3.東洋大学)

キーワード：地球システム、社会経済システム、フィードバック、労働生産性、土地利用、冷暖房需要

We developed a loosely coupled Earth system and socio-economic model, and ran that with Business As Usual scenario up to 2100. In coupling changes in labor productivity, agricultural yields (land use), and heating/cooling energy demands, selected based on an evaluation with existing literature, are considered. The result shows a slight decrease in GDP and comparable CO2 emission, in comparison to the no feedback case. Meanwhile, CO2 concentration is larger than the no feedback case, mainly due to a decrease in land carbon uptake by expansion of cropland to natural forest.