17:15 〜 18:45
[ACG34-P06] Impact of amplified interannual variability of biomass burning aerosol emissions in the CMIP6 Historical experiment with MIROC-ES2L
キーワード：バイオマス燃焼エアロゾル、地球温暖化、地球システムモデル
For temporal changes in aerosol emissions from biomass burning, CMIP5, which preceded CMIP6, only considered 10-year trends and did not include interannual variations as actually occurred in the past, but CMIP6 provided external forcing data that included the interannual variations. Further, in Fasullo et al. (2022), DeRepentigny et al. (2022), and Heyblom et al. (2022), the historical experiments using the earth system model, CESM2, showed that the amplification of interannual variations in aerosol emissions from biomass burning since late 1990s resulted in stronger warming mainly at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. We therefore investigated whether a similar effect could be observed in the CMIP6 historical experiments with our Earth System Model, MIROC-ES2L.
In this study, the Earth system model MIROC-ES2L (Hajima et al. 2020) is used to compare and analyze the experimental results between the experiments with and without amplified interannual variability for aerosol emissions from biomass burning since 1950. For the experiment without amplified interannual variability, 11-year averages of emissions data for the period from 1950 to 2014 were calculated and input. Other forcing data were input in common. We present here the results of the experiment for 10 members with different initial values. MIROC-ES2L does not show significant differences in long-term changes in surface air temperature with and without the amplification of interannual variations in aerosol emissions from biomass burning. While there are differences between the two experiments with respect to interannual variability, there are no significant differences in surface air temperatures between the experiments as seen in the results of the CESM2 experiment. The comparison of precipitation between the experiments shows that, while precipitation changes in longer time scale are quite similar in both experiment, precipitation in the case without the amplified interannual variability is slightly smaller than precipitation in the case with the interannual variability.
The substantial differences in the results between models are likely to be strongly dependent on the different aerosol effects in the models. This suggests the importance of uncertainty reduction regarding aerosol effects, if interannual variations in aerosol emissions by the fire model are taken into account in future projection experiments.
In this study, the Earth system model MIROC-ES2L (Hajima et al. 2020) is used to compare and analyze the experimental results between the experiments with and without amplified interannual variability for aerosol emissions from biomass burning since 1950. For the experiment without amplified interannual variability, 11-year averages of emissions data for the period from 1950 to 2014 were calculated and input. Other forcing data were input in common. We present here the results of the experiment for 10 members with different initial values. MIROC-ES2L does not show significant differences in long-term changes in surface air temperature with and without the amplification of interannual variations in aerosol emissions from biomass burning. While there are differences between the two experiments with respect to interannual variability, there are no significant differences in surface air temperatures between the experiments as seen in the results of the CESM2 experiment. The comparison of precipitation between the experiments shows that, while precipitation changes in longer time scale are quite similar in both experiment, precipitation in the case without the amplified interannual variability is slightly smaller than precipitation in the case with the interannual variability.
The substantial differences in the results between models are likely to be strongly dependent on the different aerosol effects in the models. This suggests the importance of uncertainty reduction regarding aerosol effects, if interannual variations in aerosol emissions by the fire model are taken into account in future projection experiments.