[A-CG37] Biogeochemical Cycles in Land Ecosystem

[ACG37-11] How Will Carbon and Water Cycles in Hokkaido's Natural Forests Change Under Climate Change? Predictions by a Dynamic Vegetation Model

*Hisashi Sato^1,2, Tsutomu Hiura², Ai Obata² (1.Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 2.Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo)

Keywords:Needle-broad mixed forest, Dynamic Vegetation Model, Individual Based Model, Climate Change, Hokkaido

Under the current trends in climate change, Japan is anticipated to experience an increase in both the frequency and intensity of typhoons, as well as a rise in precipitation levels. These changes raise concerns about more frequent occurrences of forest blowdowns and landslides. In areas affected by such disturbances, there are worries about reduced water retention capacity and increased sediment runoff, highlighting the growing need for technologies to predict and manage subsequent vegetation recovery. We are advancing the development of a Hokkaido Forest Dynamics Model in response to these societal demands by extending the individual-based dynamic vegetation model SEIB.
Our development efforts have enabled the Hokkaido model to accurately simulate the differences in relative coverage between coniferous and deciduous trees based on elevation and slope, as well as forest recovery after major windthrow events (Sato et al. 2023, Ecoll Res). In this presentation, we will showcase results from incorporating more realistic mortality and recruitment processes into the basic model, analyzing how forest structure and species composition may vary in response to the magnitude and frequency of wind damage. We will also explore several realistic scenarios of establishment conditions following wind damage, analyzing their impact on forest dynamics. Furthermore, we attempt to predict the effects of these forest dynamics on carbon and water cycles.