[A-CG46] Emulators: development and applications

[ACG46-05] Transparent framework to assess the revision of climate pledges after the first Global Stocktake

*Tanaka Katsumasa^1,2, Kushal Tibrewal¹, Philippe Ciais¹, Olivier Boucher³ (1.Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement (LSCE), Gif-Sur-Yvette, FRANCE, 2.National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, JAPAN, 3.Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, FRANCE)

Abstract
To assess the impact of potential future climate pledges after the first Global Stocktake, we propose a simple, transparent framework for developing emission and temperature scenarios by country. We show that current pledges with unconditional targets lead to global warming of 1.96 (1.39-2.6)°C by 2100. Further warming could be limited through i) commitment to mid-century net-zero targets for all countries and earlier net-zero targets for developed countries, ii) enhancement of the Global Methane Pledge, and iii) ambitious implementation of the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use. Our analysis further shows that overshooting 1.5°C is unavoidable, even with supplementary climate engineering strategies, suggesting the need for strategies to limit further overshoot and ultimately reduce the warming towards 1.5°C.

Reference
Tibrewal, K., Tanaka, K., Ciais, P. & Boucher, O. (2024) Transparent framework to assess the revision of climate pledges after the first Global Stocktake. Research Square (preprint) doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3889145/v1