[A-HW20] Integrated Watershed Management under the Future Extreme Disaster

[AHW20-P01] Assessment of Small Hydropower Potential Under Climate Change in the Qishan Watershed in Southwestern Taiwan

Chunhung Wu¹、*YI-PING CHEN²、Youda Jhong³ (1.Associate Professor, Department of Water Resources Engineering and Conservation, Feng Chia University, Taiwan (R.O.C.)、2.Postgraduate, Department of Water Resources Engineering and Conservation, Feng Chia University, Taiwan (R.O.C.)、3.Assistant Professor, Department of Water Resources Engineering and Conservation, Feng Chia University, Taiwan (R.O.C.))

キーワード：small hydropower, climate change, Qishan river, Taiwan

As the impacts of climate change and global warming intensify, many international organizations strongly urge for the effective control of global carbon emissions to prevent further deterioration. In comparison to other renewable energy sources, small-scale hydropower can be considered for global electricity generation. Taiwan has high development potential of small hydropower because of the mountainous terrain and abundant rainfall. The study focuses on the potential of small hydropower under climate change in the future in the Qishan River watershed, Southwestern Taiwan. The study uses the HEC-Hms software and the long-term rainfall and river discharge data to build the rainfall and river discharge model in the Qishan River. This study also evaluates the low-carbon and economic benefits of small hydropower generation in the Qishan river watershed. The study combines the small hydropower potential model and the daily rainfall in the future in Taiwan which was proposed in the Assessment Report Sixth by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to predict the small hydropower potential in the Qishan River.
The study focuses on the Qishan River watershed, an upstream area of the Gaoping River in southwestern Taiwan. The study uses the rainfall and river discharge data from 2013 to 2022 as the basis to analyze the characteristic of rainfall and river discharge in the Qishan River. The annual rainfall from 2013 to 2022 in the Qishan River ranged from 1700.8mm to 3792.1mm, and the river discharge in the rainy seasons, from May to October, ranged from 3549.6 to 17459.57 cms. The research analyzes the watershed's topographical parameters and the recession coefficients of river flow by using the HEC-HMS model and the rainfall and river discharge data in 2014, 2016, and 2022. Flow direction curve analysis is also applied to identify suitable locations for installing small-scale hydropower stations and assess their power generation potential. The river discharge of Qishan River exceeds 100 cms in 95% of the year based on the flow direction curve analysis in the Qishan River. The study evaluates the low carbon benefit by comparing the small hydropower, coal-fired power, and natural gas-fired power, and also assess the economic benefits from the small hydropower in the Qishan River.
The study will combine the daily rainfall from four climate change scenario models from 2024 to 2100 and the landslide susceptibility model to predict the landslide susceptibility in the future in Central Taiwan. The four climate change scenarios used in the study are the sustainability scenario (SSP 126), the middle of the road scenario (SSP 245), the regional rivalry scenario (SSP 370), and the fossil-fueled development scenario (SSP585). The study will estimate the annual rainfall and rainfall in the rainy seasons in the future based on the four scenarios in the Qishan River. The study combines the rainfall data in the future and the rainfall and river discharge model to predict the river discharge in the Qishan River in the future. The study uses the river discharge data in the future to evaluate the evolution of small hydropower under climate change in the Qishan River.