[A-OS13] Marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles: theory, observation and modeling

[AOS13-15] Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs

*Irene Alabia¹、Jorge García Molinos¹、Takafumi Hirata¹、Franz J Mueter²、Daiju Narita³、Toru Hirawake⁴ (1.Arctic Research center, Hokkaido University、2.College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks、3.Graduate School and College of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo、4.National Institute of Polar Research / The Graduate University for Advanced Studies)

キーワード：Fisheries, Climate change, CMIP6 scenarios, Eastern Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea

Climate change is expected to have long-term and ubiquitous impacts on marine ecosystems, with cascading effects on many ocean-dependent sectors. These impacts may be further influenced by future socioeconomic and political factors. Thus, there is a growing need for robust projections to understand the range of potential bioeconomic risks and opportunities that climate change presents to marine fisheries. We project future changes in the abundance of eight commercially important fish and crab species in the eastern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea under contrasting CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our results showed differential patterns of abundance and distribution changes across species, periods, and climate scenarios, highlighting potential winners and losers under future climate change. The smallest changes in future species abundance and distribution were observed under SSP126. Under an extreme scenario (SSP585), Pacific cod and snow crab abundances were shown to increase and decrease, respectively. Projected changes in species abundance suggest that fishing at the same distance from the current major port in the Bering Sea could yield declining catches for high-valued fisheries under SSP585. This is driven by strong decreases in future catches of fisheries of high economic value resulting in potential economic loss despite modest declines in maximum catch potential. Hence, we showed that projected changes in abundance and shifting distributions could have relevant bioeconomic implications for the productivity of the eastern Bering and Chukchi seas, commercial and subsistence fisheries, and effective management of transboundary resources.