3:30 PM - 3:45 PM
[HCG22-01] Intergenerational Comparison of Lifetime Carbon Emission: Equity and Future Implications
Keywords:Climate Change, Intergenerational Disparity, Global South, Equity, Lifetime Carbon Dioxide Emission, Responsibility for Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report highlights the well-established correlation between the exacerbation of climate change, as measured by global mean temperature, and cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. While greenhouse gases are emitted by individual countries, their impacts transcend national boundaries, resulting in global climate alterations and an unequal distribution of damages. Historical carbon dioxide emissions are predominantly attributed to the Global North, while communities with the least contribution to climate change have borne the heaviest burden of its consequences over decades and even centuries. For these reasons, anthropogenic climate change is often regarded as an issue of inequity, both in terms of geography and time, since the largest carbon dioxide emitters are not necessarily the most impacted by climate change. Although extensive research has focused on geographic climate justice, significant gaps persist in the examination of intergenerational inequity. Consequently, our aim was to identify disparities in responsibility for the causes of climate change by scrutinizing intergenerational differences through the analysis of lifetime carbon emissions.
We computed per capita lifetime carbon dioxide emissions within the framework of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenario for generations born between 1900 and 2070. Assuming SSP1, our findings indicate that, concerning lifetime emissions per capita for all generations, under RCP 1.9, an individual born in 1971 is projected to emit the highest amount of carbon dioxide during their lifetime, approximately 1.5 times as much as someone born in 1960 or 2000. Conversely, under RCP 4.5, those born in 2005 would shoulder the greatest responsibility. In the Baseline scenario, individuals born after 2050 will carry the greatest burden. (Figure. 1)
It is also essential to acknowledge the disparity in carbon dioxide emissions between generations as well as the disparity concerning the global south. Thus, we compared lifetime carbon dioxide emissions in OECD and non-OECD countries.As a result, while OECD nations dominated per capita lifetime emissions until around 2000, under SSP1-RCP1.9, cumulative per capita lifetime carbon dioxide emissions of OECD nations declined rapidly, and a shift between OECD and non-OECD nations is expected around 2020. Additionally, SSP2-RCP3.4 suggests that per capita lifetime carbon dioxide emissions will stabilize after 2050, but a complete turnaround is not likely to occur. Conversely, the gap widens under SSP3-RCP7.0, indicating that not only the intergenerational gap but also the regional gap will increase. (Figure. 2)
The variations in cumulative carbon dioxide emissions across generations, as revealed in this study, emphasize the fluid nature of responsibility for climate change, contingent on future emission patterns. Importantly, our findings are not intended to blame the younger generation for assigning greater responsibility to the older generation. It's evident that not only the intergenerational gap but also the geographical gap between the Global North and the Global South will further increase under the scenario of increasing social fragmentation and higher emissions. This underscores the magnitude of responsibility placed on the younger generation, which will depend on the progress and effectiveness of future mitigation efforts.
We computed per capita lifetime carbon dioxide emissions within the framework of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenario for generations born between 1900 and 2070. Assuming SSP1, our findings indicate that, concerning lifetime emissions per capita for all generations, under RCP 1.9, an individual born in 1971 is projected to emit the highest amount of carbon dioxide during their lifetime, approximately 1.5 times as much as someone born in 1960 or 2000. Conversely, under RCP 4.5, those born in 2005 would shoulder the greatest responsibility. In the Baseline scenario, individuals born after 2050 will carry the greatest burden. (Figure. 1)
It is also essential to acknowledge the disparity in carbon dioxide emissions between generations as well as the disparity concerning the global south. Thus, we compared lifetime carbon dioxide emissions in OECD and non-OECD countries.As a result, while OECD nations dominated per capita lifetime emissions until around 2000, under SSP1-RCP1.9, cumulative per capita lifetime carbon dioxide emissions of OECD nations declined rapidly, and a shift between OECD and non-OECD nations is expected around 2020. Additionally, SSP2-RCP3.4 suggests that per capita lifetime carbon dioxide emissions will stabilize after 2050, but a complete turnaround is not likely to occur. Conversely, the gap widens under SSP3-RCP7.0, indicating that not only the intergenerational gap but also the regional gap will increase. (Figure. 2)
The variations in cumulative carbon dioxide emissions across generations, as revealed in this study, emphasize the fluid nature of responsibility for climate change, contingent on future emission patterns. Importantly, our findings are not intended to blame the younger generation for assigning greater responsibility to the older generation. It's evident that not only the intergenerational gap but also the geographical gap between the Global North and the Global South will further increase under the scenario of increasing social fragmentation and higher emissions. This underscores the magnitude of responsibility placed on the younger generation, which will depend on the progress and effectiveness of future mitigation efforts.