[H-CG22] Adaptation to climate change and its social implementation

[HCG22-P03] The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Japan

*Shobayashi Narin¹, KOJI DAIRAKU¹ (1.University of tsukuba)

Keywords:climate change, photovoltaic generation, renewable energy

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, set a common goal for the world to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C, within 2°C of the level at the time of the Industrial Revolution. In response, Japan dedicated itself to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Therefore, the importance of renewable energy sources that do not emit carbon dioxide has increased in recent years. Among them, photovoltaic power generation is attracting particular attention as a distributed energy source that is easy to install as an individual and can be used in times of disaster. However, the amount of electricity generated by solar power depends on the climate at the location where the solar panels are installed. Therefore, there is concern that climate change could make it a vulnerable energy source. We assessed the impact of climate change on PV power generation by combining a global climate projection model, which predicts future climate, with PV power generation potential, which indicates the amount of PV power generated and the impact of climate on PV power generation. The results show that in both the middle and the end of the century, solar power generation potential decreases in some regions of the Kanto and Hokkaido regions, and increases in other regions, especially in the Chugoku region. When averaged over the entire Japan region, climate change was found to have a positive impact on the solar PV potential. In the future, it will be necessary to ice not only the change in the average with respect to the time series, but also to pay attention to the daily and annual variations in power generation.