[M-IS01] ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIO-ECONOMIC, AND CLIMATIC CHANGES IN NORTHERN EURASIA

[MIS01-10] Comparative analysis of PM₁₀ concentrations during sand dust storms in cities of Uzbekistan based on ground-based observations, CAMS and MERRA-2 reanalysis products.

Natella Rakhmatova¹, Bakhriddin E. Nishonov¹, Lyudmila Shardakova¹, Mansur Amonov², Temur Khujanazarov³, *Dmitry Belikov⁴ (1.Hydrometeorological Research Institute, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 2.Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural Mechanization Engineers, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 3.Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, 4.Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University)

Keywords:PM10, atmospheric aerosols, sand and dust storms , Central Asia

Sand and dust storms (SDS) are recurring natural phenomena with significant impacts on human populations that extend far beyond arid regions. SDS events have multiple consequences, including economic setbacks, health hazards, risks to vegetation, and environmental degradation. Uzbekistan, located in the global dust belt that spans Central Asia, experiences frequent SDS events. These events can escalate daily PM₁₀ (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 μm) levels to concentrations that significantly exceed established air quality standards. The primary sources of PM₁₀ during the SDS are the vast desert regions, including the Karakum, Kyzylkum, and newly formed Aralkum deserts.
The development of novel reanalysis products holds great promise for SDS research. These products provide valuable insights and data that greatly enhance our understanding of SDS events and their multiple impacts on the environment, public health, and various other domains. They strengthen the accuracy and comprehensiveness of studies and improve our ability to anticipate, monitor, and mitigate the effects of SDS. Currently, two major reanalysis products provide information on aerosol properties: the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is a global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), and ECMWF's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis integrated into the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS).
This study provides a comparative analysis of PM₁₀ concentrations in major cities of Uzbekistan using ground observations and atmospheric reanalysis data. The results show that average PM₁₀ concentrations in Nukus exceed those in Tashkent by more than a factor of two. CAMS shows good fidelity in reproducing the observed concentrations, while MERRA-2 tends to overestimate them, especially in winter. CAMS is also better at reproducing PM₁₀ peak concentrations in the medium term (7-10 days). Using the example of a dust storm on 27-28 May 2018, the study illustrates the ability of CAMS to estimate the spatial distribution of PM₁₀ concentrations in the atmosphere, analyze the dynamics of dust dispersion over urban areas, and study variations in key meteorological parameters such as air temperature and wind speed. Thus, the use of CAMS reanalysis is recommended for regions lacking field observations.