[M-IS01] ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIO-ECONOMIC, AND CLIMATIC CHANGES IN NORTHERN EURASIA

[MIS01-P10] Climate warming impacts decrease terrestrial accessibility in the Arctic by mid-century

*Dmitry A Streletskiy¹、Katherine Landers¹、Emma Haggerty¹ (1.George Washington University)

キーワード：Arctic, climate change, transportation , accessibility

The Arctic region faces unique challenges in adapting its transportation infrastructure to cope with rapidly shifting climatic and environmental conditions. Previous studies have focused primarily on winter and ice roads, leaving permanent infrastructure networks largely unstudied. This research builds upon previous work on the Arctic Transportation and Accessibility Model (ATAM) to predict terrestrial accessibility and mobility changes over permanent roads and railroads, as well as seasonal winter and ice roads by mid-century. Using a subset of CMIP6 models under moderate and high Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245, 585), Community Arctic Transportation and Accessibility Model (CATAM) employs a comprehensive framework that integrates climatological, geotechnical, and topographical variables to simulate changes in transportation and accessibility across the Arctic states – the US (Alaska), Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Russia. Preliminary results indicate a widespread decline in overland accessibility by mid-century, with Finland, western Russia, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories in Canada, and the North Slope Borough in Alaska particularly affected. The results of this research can help to inform policymakers and infrastructure planners in order to support sustainable transportation strategies and infrastructure development in the Arctic regions.