17:15 〜 18:45
[MIS01-P21] Eastern Mediterranean ecosystems at Caucasus Black Sea coast and climate risks
キーワード：Mediterranean ecosystems, Climate risks, Climate change, Black Sea coast
The Black Sea coast of the Caucasus with its Mediterranean climate is extremely attractive for tourism development. The region is among the most densely populated in Russia, with a constant increase in the number of residents due to migration. At the same time, there is a high risk of dangerous climate events. Extreme values of air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, droughts, floods, mudflows, landslides pose a threat to the life and health of people, natural systems and economic sectors. Climate extremes are typical for the Caucasus region as a whole: 18-25% of all dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena in the country occur here annually.
There are 6 ecosystem types in the narrow land strip between the coast line and Grater Caucasus Range: oak, pine and juniper Mediterranean forests and shrubs; temperate broadleaved oak-Carpinus forests above them on the southern slopes; beech forests on the tops of low mountains and at northern slopes; steppes (primary grasslands) on the driest tops and petrophilic vegetation on steep slopes. Using satellite images and field observations we produced a map of them.
Modern changes in the Anapa-Gelendzhik near coast ecosystems are most clearly manifested in increase in average and maximum temperatures, as well as heat waves. For extreme values of precipitation and other extreme events, the trends are less significant, including forecasts, although there are certain developments. Temperatures projected to continue to rise under all IPCC climate change scenarios.
For subtropical forests, there is an increase in the average and maximum temperatures, aridization, as well as in number of heat waves. The combination of the risks of heat waves, forest fires, extreme rainfall, floods, mudflows, landslides, hurricane-force winds, including hazardous event complexes, indicates a high level of climate extremeness. Moreover, dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena causing significant damage have observed almost every year.
Fires, storms and outbreaks of pests are as common in broadleaved forests as in taiga. According to observations, there is an increase in aridity in summer in all zonal biomes. At the end of the summer 2023, a large fire occurred in the Gelendzhik area, which quickly spread to more than 100 hectares. This is man-caused fire, but its rapid and widespread spread was due to the prolonged drought in the area. Extremely strong wind up to 30 m/s and terrain made it difficult to eliminate fire. As a result, pine and oak forests were completely destroyed, trees survived mainly in small valleys.
Steppe and desert biomes are subject to heatwaves, droughts, and fires. Dangerous atmospheric droughts became more frequent during the growing season, and the dates of their start were shifted to earlier dates (on average, by one to two weeks) in most of the steppe zone.
The climate-induced shift of the vegetation belts up the slopes of the mountains leads to a reduction in its area even while maintaining its width. Slope erosion, rockfalls, and mudflows intensify. Mudflows destroy vegetation in the material transit zone and can bury more than one meter of sediment in the accumulation zone. In areas of mudflow activity, vegetation does not have time to recover and remains in a state of constant disturbance.
Mainly petrophilic vegetation grows on steep coastal slopes, but in the Gelendzhik region pine is found on rocky cliffs. Vegetation also grows on the beach, mainly in places where a permanent or temporary watercourse leads to the sea. This vegetation is affected by heat waves, droughts, landslides, abrasion and strong storms in the autumn-winter period.
Adaptation of ecosystems to climate change can be facilitated by human activity. The process has not only conservation value, but is fundamentally important for human wellbeing and renewable resources restoration.
There are 6 ecosystem types in the narrow land strip between the coast line and Grater Caucasus Range: oak, pine and juniper Mediterranean forests and shrubs; temperate broadleaved oak-Carpinus forests above them on the southern slopes; beech forests on the tops of low mountains and at northern slopes; steppes (primary grasslands) on the driest tops and petrophilic vegetation on steep slopes. Using satellite images and field observations we produced a map of them.
Modern changes in the Anapa-Gelendzhik near coast ecosystems are most clearly manifested in increase in average and maximum temperatures, as well as heat waves. For extreme values of precipitation and other extreme events, the trends are less significant, including forecasts, although there are certain developments. Temperatures projected to continue to rise under all IPCC climate change scenarios.
For subtropical forests, there is an increase in the average and maximum temperatures, aridization, as well as in number of heat waves. The combination of the risks of heat waves, forest fires, extreme rainfall, floods, mudflows, landslides, hurricane-force winds, including hazardous event complexes, indicates a high level of climate extremeness. Moreover, dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena causing significant damage have observed almost every year.
Fires, storms and outbreaks of pests are as common in broadleaved forests as in taiga. According to observations, there is an increase in aridity in summer in all zonal biomes. At the end of the summer 2023, a large fire occurred in the Gelendzhik area, which quickly spread to more than 100 hectares. This is man-caused fire, but its rapid and widespread spread was due to the prolonged drought in the area. Extremely strong wind up to 30 m/s and terrain made it difficult to eliminate fire. As a result, pine and oak forests were completely destroyed, trees survived mainly in small valleys.
Steppe and desert biomes are subject to heatwaves, droughts, and fires. Dangerous atmospheric droughts became more frequent during the growing season, and the dates of their start were shifted to earlier dates (on average, by one to two weeks) in most of the steppe zone.
The climate-induced shift of the vegetation belts up the slopes of the mountains leads to a reduction in its area even while maintaining its width. Slope erosion, rockfalls, and mudflows intensify. Mudflows destroy vegetation in the material transit zone and can bury more than one meter of sediment in the accumulation zone. In areas of mudflow activity, vegetation does not have time to recover and remains in a state of constant disturbance.
Mainly petrophilic vegetation grows on steep coastal slopes, but in the Gelendzhik region pine is found on rocky cliffs. Vegetation also grows on the beach, mainly in places where a permanent or temporary watercourse leads to the sea. This vegetation is affected by heat waves, droughts, landslides, abrasion and strong storms in the autumn-winter period.
Adaptation of ecosystems to climate change can be facilitated by human activity. The process has not only conservation value, but is fundamentally important for human wellbeing and renewable resources restoration.