[M-IS04] Interdisciplinary studies on pre-earthquake processes

[MIS04-03] Real-time seismic risk analysis based on b-value and significance test: A case study of 2021 Yangbi earthquake

*Rui Wang¹、Peng Han¹、Ying Chang²、Miao Miao¹、Hongyan Chen¹、Zhiyi Zeng¹、Haixia Shi³、Danning Li⁴、LIfang Liu⁴、Youjin Su⁴ (1.Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China 、2.Institute of Mining Engineering, BGRIMM Technology Grope. Beijing, China、3.China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing, China、4.Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province, Kunming, Chinac)

キーワード：b value, earthquake forecast

Studies show that b-values decline before a major earthquake, which can be used to predict subsequent risk. A traffic light system based on real-time monitoring of b-values can be used to predict earthquake risk. The earthquake catalog of Yunnan Province is divided into four periods based on b-value analysis to predict large earthquakes (M>=5 and M>=5.5). The system was optimized to predict high-risk areas during 2020-2024. After the study was submitted, the system predicted M5.6 and M6.4 earthquakes in Yangbi, which is located in the forecast area. After that, the traffic light system was used to analyze the seismic sequence of Yangbi. It is found that the b-value near the Yangbi earthquake decreases after the foreshock and rises after the main shock. Moreover, optimizing the traffic light system shows that the b-value changes significantly. Therefore, the traffic light system can predict the subsequent main earthquake, the improved traffic light system can give significance analysis, and the spatial b value can indicate the spatial distribution of earthquake risk.