16:00 〜 16:15
[MIS06-09] Dynamic downscaling of d4PDF large ensemble global projections for river basins in Philippine and Indonesia
キーワード：力学的ダウンスケーリング、インドネシア、フィリピン、大アンサンブル、d4PDF
We have investigated the change in flood and drought risk due to global warming through dynamic downscaling of global climate projections for the Davao River basin, Philippines (7.5 N), and the Solo River basin, Indonesia (7.5S). In our previous study, Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM) climate projections were downscaled to 5 km horizontal resolution by the WRF model. The results showed an increase in monthly precipitation during the rainy season in both target basins. However, these trends are opposite to the CORDEX-SEA results, which show a decrease in wet season rainfall in both basins. To project future rainfall changes with greater uncertainty, we downscaled large ensemble global climate projections, named “database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)”, selecting a total of 180 years for past, 2K increased and 4K increased future, respectively. The future projections were perturbed by the six different Sea Surface Temperature (SST) distributions. The results showed the various likely future changes of rainfall. The Indonesian River basin rainfall has a tendency of unchanged in 2K and slightly increase in 4K future. The Philippine River basin rainfall has a tendency of slight decrease in 2K and significant decrease in 4K future. These results are useful for future hydrological risk studies.