Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2024

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[E] Oral

M (Multidisciplinary and Interdisciplinary) » M-IS Intersection

[M-IS06] Extreme Weather and Water Related Disasters in Asia

Fri. May 31, 2024 3:30 PM - 4:45 PM 104 (International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Hisayuki Kubota(Hokkaido University), Mitsuteru Sato(Department of Cosmoscience, Hokkaido University), Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu(Institute Technology of Bandung), Marcelino Q. Villafuerte II(Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration), Chairperson:Mitsuteru Sato(Department of Cosmoscience, Hokkaido University), Hisayuki Kubota(Hokkaido University), Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu(Institute Technology of Bandung)


4:00 PM - 4:15 PM

[MIS06-09] Dynamic downscaling of d4PDF large ensemble global projections for river basins in Philippine and Indonesia

*Tomoki Ushiyama1, Ralph Allen Elpa Acierto1 (1.Public Works Research Institute)

Keywords:dynamic downscaling, Indonesia, Philippines, large ensemble, d4PDF

We have investigated the change in flood and drought risk due to global warming through dynamic downscaling of global climate projections for the Davao River basin, Philippines (7.5 N), and the Solo River basin, Indonesia (7.5S). In our previous study, Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM) climate projections were downscaled to 5 km horizontal resolution by the WRF model. The results showed an increase in monthly precipitation during the rainy season in both target basins. However, these trends are opposite to the CORDEX-SEA results, which show a decrease in wet season rainfall in both basins. To project future rainfall changes with greater uncertainty, we downscaled large ensemble global climate projections, named “database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)”, selecting a total of 180 years for past, 2K increased and 4K increased future, respectively. The future projections were perturbed by the six different Sea Surface Temperature (SST) distributions. The results showed the various likely future changes of rainfall. The Indonesian River basin rainfall has a tendency of unchanged in 2K and slightly increase in 4K future. The Philippine River basin rainfall has a tendency of slight decrease in 2K and significant decrease in 4K future. These results are useful for future hydrological risk studies.