17:15 〜 18:45
[MIS06-P02] Has Tropical Cyclone Disaster Risk Increased in Bangladesh: Retrospective Analysis of Storm Information, Disaster Statistics, and Mitigation Measures
キーワード：Tropical cyclone, Disaster risk, Early warning system, Preparedness, Bangladesh
Tropical cyclone (TC) disaster risk has likely increased in Bangladesh since the beginning of the 21st century. It is primarily due to the cumulative impact of rising coastal exposures such as population, insufficient funding to address disaster risks, and outdated early warning signals for TC. From 2000 to 2020, the average number of people affected by a Category 1–2 TC (according to Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) was 3.18 million, representing a 28.91% increase from the average reported during 1979–1999. Moreover, the past two decades have witnessed a staggering 69.83% of all TC-induced disasters, and with the exception of Chattogram, all coastal districts have seen a rise in the number of TC disasters. Notably, the frequency of TCs and meteorological trends, which remain relatively constant over time, cannot account for either the size of the affected population or the number of TC-related disasters reported at the sub-national level. During 2000–2013, roughly 67% of the disaster management budget was provided by foreign and humanitarian aid, and a significant funding gap was observed during major TC disasters, such as TC Sidr in 2007. Our findings also suggest that the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) tends to issue higher levels of warnings irrespective of the intensity and potential hazard of a TC, which may have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate in recent years. However, there is a growing concern that this approach may lead to an emerging type of TC disaster risk, where people may start to disregard the warnings due to their perceived lack of credibility.