[M-ZZ39] Scientific, technical, and educational aspects of renewable energy

[MZZ39-P03] Sunlight obscuration forecast by cloud motion detection

Pan Chen-Jeih¹、*陳 羿彣¹、楊 時賢² (1.國立中央大學、2.長榮大學)

キーワード：全天カメラ、太陽放射照度、相互相關

The obscuration of sunlight caused by clouds is the main factor that reduces solar power generated. Therefore, solar irradiance forecasts are essential in constructing a resilient power grid. In the present study, a sunlight obscuration event (SOE) is defined as a cloud obscuring the sun in the sky, representing the reduction of direct sunlight, and solar power generation is expected to decrease. An all-sky imager monitors the cloud distribution in the whole sky. Further cloud motions are derived from all-sky images (ASIs) using an adaptive tracking algorithm based on phase correlation. The derived cloud motions are used to predict sky areas obscured by clouds, and a 10-minute SOE forecast is thus made, providing crucial information on immediate solar irradiance for power dispatch and grid operation. Forecast validation will also be introduced in this presentation.