5:15 PM - 6:45 PM
[MZZ43-P07] Distribution and variability of solar radiation during summer extreme events
Keywords:extreme events, Distribution and variation of solar radiation
Efforts are becoming more active to install large amounts of renewable energy for a decarbonized society, and in particular, the amount of photovoltaic power systems is increasing significantly. On the other hand, extreme meteorological events occur more frequently in recent years due to the climate change. Persistent extreme events on a regional scale, such as heavy rain and heat waves, have a large impact on fluctuations in solar radiation and power system operation. This impact is expected to become even greater with the increase in the amount of photovoltaic power generation, in addition to the climate change. To promote the introduction of solar power generation, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of output prediction, and further understanding of variability in solar radiation during the extreme events is required. Research has been conducted on so-called Dark Doldrum and conditions with low solar radiation. However, few studies take into account extreme events.
In this study, we use meteorological observation data and atmospheric reanalysis data ERA5 to clarify the distribution and variability of solar radiation during the heavy rain events in summer. We also examine the impact on interannual variation of solar radiation. We mainly focus on the heavy rain events in July 2018, July 2020, and August 2021. First, we examined the anomalies of solar radiation during the heavy rain events from the climatology. For example, in early July 2018, negative anomalies cover entire Japan from Kyushu to Hokkaido. According to the time series of solar radiation at representative locations, solar radiation intermittently decreases during the events, with the ratio of solar radiation to the clear sky solar radiation decreases of 0.2. Furthermore, when we investigated the interannual variation in solar radiation by region and by observation location, monthly average values significantly decrease in the years with heavy rainfall events. In the meeting, we show results on the variability in a month and the frequency of consecutive days of low solar radiation.
In this study, we use meteorological observation data and atmospheric reanalysis data ERA5 to clarify the distribution and variability of solar radiation during the heavy rain events in summer. We also examine the impact on interannual variation of solar radiation. We mainly focus on the heavy rain events in July 2018, July 2020, and August 2021. First, we examined the anomalies of solar radiation during the heavy rain events from the climatology. For example, in early July 2018, negative anomalies cover entire Japan from Kyushu to Hokkaido. According to the time series of solar radiation at representative locations, solar radiation intermittently decreases during the events, with the ratio of solar radiation to the clear sky solar radiation decreases of 0.2. Furthermore, when we investigated the interannual variation in solar radiation by region and by observation location, monthly average values significantly decrease in the years with heavy rainfall events. In the meeting, we show results on the variability in a month and the frequency of consecutive days of low solar radiation.