5:15 PM - 6:45 PM
[MZZ43-P08] Projected changes in the solar energy resource in future climate simulations of the High-resolution model intercomparison project
Keywords:Solar energy, Renewable energy, Climate, Resource
Solar energy available at the earth's surface is one of the renewable energy sources and is expected to become a major energy source in the future. In addition, photovoltaic (PV) power generation is a promising means to achieve net-zero emission for global warming mitigation.
Future projected climate changes originating from global warming are expected to affect the surface solar energy. Then, this change is expected to affect the installation and operation of solar energy systems. In order to utilize solar energy on a large scale in the future, it is necessary to know the future changes in the solar energy. The numerical simulation technique is essential to project a future climate.
In this study, high-resolution climate simulation data were used to evaluate future changes in surface solar energy. Shortwave fluxes and power generation from PV power generating systems were analyzed to quantify the changes in surface solar energy. The future climate simulation datasets that were generated from three climate models: GFDL, HadGEM3, and NICAM, in the High-resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) were used. The spatial resolutions of those datasets are finer than 50 km. Those data were chosen because their spatial resolutions are suitable for analysis on a regional scale in Japan. Global solar irradiation, direct solar irradiation, and diffused solar irradiation were used in the analysis. These variables are necessary to compute the solar power generation. Simulations of solar power generation on a regional scale were performed using solar radiation data as input values to numerical models which provide the PV power generation.
The analyses revealed that the models had different projections of future changes in shortwave fluxes over the area of Japan. However, none of the three models projected a decrease in shortwave fluxes. Future changes in PV power generation by region also differ among the models. In terms of PV power generation by region, no region shows a decrease in the power generation, but the changes vary from region to region. Those results suggest there are uncertainties in the predicted information, and future climate simulations need to be improved in order to increase their reliability.
Future projected climate changes originating from global warming are expected to affect the surface solar energy. Then, this change is expected to affect the installation and operation of solar energy systems. In order to utilize solar energy on a large scale in the future, it is necessary to know the future changes in the solar energy. The numerical simulation technique is essential to project a future climate.
In this study, high-resolution climate simulation data were used to evaluate future changes in surface solar energy. Shortwave fluxes and power generation from PV power generating systems were analyzed to quantify the changes in surface solar energy. The future climate simulation datasets that were generated from three climate models: GFDL, HadGEM3, and NICAM, in the High-resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) were used. The spatial resolutions of those datasets are finer than 50 km. Those data were chosen because their spatial resolutions are suitable for analysis on a regional scale in Japan. Global solar irradiation, direct solar irradiation, and diffused solar irradiation were used in the analysis. These variables are necessary to compute the solar power generation. Simulations of solar power generation on a regional scale were performed using solar radiation data as input values to numerical models which provide the PV power generation.
The analyses revealed that the models had different projections of future changes in shortwave fluxes over the area of Japan. However, none of the three models projected a decrease in shortwave fluxes. Future changes in PV power generation by region also differ among the models. In terms of PV power generation by region, no region shows a decrease in the power generation, but the changes vary from region to region. Those results suggest there are uncertainties in the predicted information, and future climate simulations need to be improved in order to increase their reliability.